Wave of Change: How to Build a Global Internet Tsunami Warning System

Written just says after the December 26 2004 tsunami disaster, this commentary piece begins with the statement, "A friend of mine is missing in southern Asia." The author's personal connection to the disaster inspires this wry look at strategies for developing tsunami warning systems, talk about which intensified in the tsunami's aftermath.

In short, Robert X. Cringely's proposal is this: "We don't need governments and huge sensor arrays to warn people on the beach about the next huge wave approaching at 400 miles-per-hour. Thanks to the Internet, we can probably do it by ourselves."

Before Cringely gets to the details of how information and communication technology (ICT) could foster the development of this kind of self-reliant disaster preparedness, he motivates and provides context, urging "We can't rely on governments to do this kind of work anymore. They just take too darned long and spend too much money for what you get. Besides, since governments are almost totally reactive, what they'll build is a warning system for precisely the tsunami we just had - a tsunami bigger than any in that region since the eruption of Krakatoa in 1883. One could argue (and some experts probably will) that it might even be a waste of money to build a warning system for a disaster that might not happen for another 121 years."

In lieu of a time-consuming, expensive, global cooperation effort, this author claims, it is various localised, community-based processes that will be the key to preventing this kind of disaster from happening again. In short, his idea is "what we care about here is not global tsunami warning but LOCAL tsunami warning (Is it going to hit MY beach?)." He explains, "What we need is a tsunami warning system not just for parts of Asia, but for anywhere in the world that might be subject to such conditions. And that decision about what beaches to protect ought to come not from Washington, D.C., or Jakarta, or any other capital city, but from the beach people, themselves. If you are concerned about a giant tidal wave taking out your village, it might be a good idea to build your own warning system..."

Using the example of the Tsunami Warning System (TWS) in the Pacific Ocean, Cringely explores how such localised warning systems could be developed through the use of ICTs - but not supercomputers - to share information. He outlines a framework, the gist of which is captured in this excerpt: "So to start, we need raw seismic data...plenty of such data are available...the Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network...is one place where you can find real time data....Here's where we need the help of a tsunami expert, someone who can help us calculate the size and direction of a likely tsunami based on the available seismic data. Fortunately, there has been quite a bit of work done in this area of study...and appropriate computer codes that can be run on a personal computer either exist or can be derived...then we need the warning, which I would flash on the screen of my PC [personal computer] down at the surf shop using a Javascript widget built with Konfabulator...Looking just like a TV weather map, the widget would flash a warning and even include a countdown timer..."

Based on a linked article on the "i, cringley" page on the PBS website, it appears that people have already started working on such a framework: Two students in Australia presumably built a tsunami warning widget overnight (see "Students Build Tsunami Warning System" - a free registration process is required to access this article in The Sydney Morning Herald).

In conclusion, Cringley stresses that: "You don't need an international consortium to build such a local tsunami warning system. You don't even need broadband. The data is available, processing power is abundant and cheap. With local effort, there is no reason why every populated beach on earth can't have a practical tsunami warning system up and running a month from now. That's Internet time for you, but in this case, its application can protect friends everywhere from senseless and easily avoidable death."